Brent Crashes 15% Below $100/Barrel as Trump Halts Strikes on Iranian Energy Infrastructure

Oil Prices Plummet 13% Amid Trump's Iran Strike Postponement

On Monday, oil prices fell by over 13% after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would order the military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. Brent crude futures dropped around $17, or 15 percent, to a session low of $96 a barrel by 1108 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $13, or about 13.5 percent, to a session low of $85.28.

Market Analysis

The development follows an earlier ultimatum from Trump giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route. Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts amid continued disruption risks tied to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March and April, up from an earlier estimate of $98. It also revised its WTI outlook to $98 in March and $105 in April.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Supply Risks and Uncertainty

Gita Gopinath, economist and former Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said the near-term outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain and depends on how the situation evolves over the next 24 hours. Markets are currently pricing oil at around $80 per barrel, but escalation risks could push prices significantly higher, with $100 per barrel emerging as a plausible scenario under adverse conditions.

Global Impact and IEA Response

The Strait of Hormuz typically handles around 20% of global oil supply, making it one of the most critical chokepoints for energy markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has flagged the severity of the situation, with executive director Fatih Birol describing it as "very severe". The IEA has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to address supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline