Bears Drag Indian Indices to 11-Month Low Amid Global Market Volatility

Nifty 50 Falls 2.6 Percent on March 23 Due to Geopolitical Tensions

The Nifty 50 index declined by 2.6% on March 23, marking a negative start to the week, due to heightened global uncertainty following the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The index opened 290 points lower at 22,824 and continued to fall throughout the session, touching an intraday low of 22,471 before closing at 22,513, the lowest closing level since April 2025.

Key Technical Indicators

The technical structure remains severely weak, while momentum indicators are now in oversold zones, showing signs of losing downside momentum. The Nifty 50 is likely to face a hurdle in the 22,700-22,800 zone in the upcoming sessions, followed by 23,000-23,200 levels. Crucial support is placed at 22,400-22,000 if further weakness persists.

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Recent Price Action

The Nifty 50 has fallen nearly 15% from its record high in just 52 trading sessions, making it one of the steepest declines witnessed in recent periods. The index is currently placed near the support at 22,500, the previous upside opening gap of April 11, 2025. Further weakness from here could drag the index down to the next crucial support levels of 22,000-21,800 in the near term.

Options Data

The weekly options data indicates that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade in the 22,000-23,200 range in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 23,000 strike, followed by 23,200 and 22,700 strikes.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

India VIX

The India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, surged 17.17% to a fresh over 21-month closing high of 26.73, signalling significant discomfort for bulls. It needs to fall below 20 to bring some comfort to the bulls.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also saw a knee-jerk reaction to the escalation in Middle East tensions, underperforming the benchmark indices. The banking index closed below 51,500, falling 1,989 points (3.72%) to 51,438, its lowest closing level since April 11, 2025.

Key Technical Indicators for Bank Nifty

The technical setup remains weak, with momentum indicators hovering in oversold territory, hence the short-covering led recovery can't be ruled out going ahead. The RSI dropped to 23.51, with the oversold condition defined below the 30 level.

Support and Resistance Levels for Bank Nifty

In case of a rebound, the 52,000-52,500 zone could act as immediate resistance, followed by 53,000-53,100, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from March 2025 to the February 2026 high (golden ratio).