B Capital's Howard Morgan Sees India Filling Global Vacuum Created by Trump Tariffs

India to Benefit from US-China Economic Decoupling

B Capital CEO Howard Morgan predicts that India will gain structurally from the ongoing economic decoupling between the United States and China. Speaking at the India Global Forum in Mumbai, Morgan noted that the protectionist shift in US policy has created a "vacuum" that India is well-positioned to fill.

Key Drivers of Growth

The economic decoupling between the US and China, coupled with President Trump's isolationist agenda, is expected to increase India's importance in global supply chains and economic partnerships. Morgan highlighted the growth of India's venture ecosystem and investor base, citing stronger public market participation and the expansion of early-stage venture capital activity.

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Venture Market Growth

The early-stage venture market in India has seen significant growth, with B Capital investing over $1.5 billion in the country over the past decade. Morgan noted that the ability to return capital to investors is crucial for the venture market, and that the growth of India's technology ecosystem signals a broader shift in the country's role in the global economy.

Risks and Challenges

While India's growth trajectory is promising, Morgan cautioned that risks such as political instability and energy shocks could derail the country's growth. A prolonged crisis in West Asia could affect India's oil imports, which are crucial to the country's economy.

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Due Diligence and Risk Management

Morgan noted that venture investors are becoming more cautious in emerging markets and are conducting deeper due diligence on startup finances. B Capital is increasingly using artificial intelligence tools to analyze company financial data, including detailed revenue records, to detect irregularities.

India's Global Economic Aspirations

Morgan predicts that India's sustained economic growth will enable it to climb the global economic rankings in the coming years. With a GDP growth rate, India could move from number four to number three in the global economy rankings.