Asian Paints Stock Surges 3% Following Strong Q4 Earnings, Brokerages Forecast Potential 34% Upside

Asian Paints Shares Surge 3% as Earnings Exceed Expectations

Shares of Asian Paints Ltd rose over 3 percent in early trade on Monday after the paint maker reported a strong set of March-quarter earnings. The company's quarterly performance exceeded expectations on multiple fronts, with consolidated net profit surging 69.3 percent year-on-year and revenue rising 10.8 percent.

Asian Paints, India's largest paint maker with a market capitalisation of about Rs 2.56 lakh crore, has gained over 22 percent over the past one year, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50, which has declined 4.4 percent during the same period. The company's Q4 FY26 performance was marked by a 69.3 percent year-on-year jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,172.1 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.

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Among the bullish voices, Nomura reiterated its buy rating on Asian Paints stock with a target price of Rs 3,600 per share, implying potential upside of about 34 percent from Friday's closing price. The brokerage said Asian Paints exceeded expectations across revenue, volume growth and margins, while also improving guidance on product mix. Nomura believes competitive pressures in the sector may have peaked, and it expects the company to deliver a 13 percent earnings CAGR through FY29.

Jefferies maintained its buy call with a target price of Rs 3,300. It cited the strongest domestic volume growth in 12 quarters and positive management commentary on demand and margins. The brokerage expects margins to remain stable despite heightened competition.

Macquarie also stayed constructive on the stock, retaining an outperform rating and a target price of Rs 3,000. It highlighted strong volume growth, better realisations and an EBITDA performance that exceeded expectations. The brokerage noted management's guidance for 8-10 percent volume growth in FY27 and plans for additional price hikes to offset rising input costs.

However, some brokerages remained cautious. HSBC retained a hold rating with a target price of Rs 2,550, saying the quarter benefited from a favourable base and dealer pre-buying ahead of price increases. The brokerage believes demand sustainability remains the key monitorable.

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CLSA maintained an underperform rating and target price of Rs 1,886. It said that rising raw material costs may require further price hikes and that competitive intensity could limit the company's ability to fully pass on higher costs.

Morgan Stanley also stayed cautious with an underweight rating and a target price of Rs 2,253. The brokerage said part of the March-quarter strength appeared to be driven by pre-buying ahead of announced price hikes and flagged input-cost inflation as a key risk.

Citi retained its sell rating and target price of Rs 2,500, citing concerns over raw material inflation and sustained competitive pressures despite the strong quarterly performance.

Management indicated that additional price increases remain under consideration to counter rising input costs, while maintaining its margin guidance of 18-20 percent. The company also guided for volume growth of 8-10 percent in FY27.