Analysts Recommend Buying Greenpanel Industries, Target Price of Rs 320

Greenpanel Industries Posts Strong Q4FY26 Performance

Greenpanel Industries reported a broadly in-line performance in Q4FY26, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 7.1% quarter-on-quarter to Rs0.35 billion. This growth was largely driven by the company's MDF segment, which witnessed a strong double-digit growth in volume for the third consecutive quarter. MDF volume increased by 28% in Q4FY26, building on the previous quarters' growth of 25% in Q2FY26 and 17% in Q3FY26.

The company's management has shifted its focus towards improving market share from Q1FY26 onwards, which has contributed to the sustained growth in MDF volume. As a result, the MDF segment margin improved to a six-quarter high of 7.2% in Q4FY26. Looking ahead, Greenpanel Industries is expected to experience sharp earnings growth over the next three years, driven by the emerging pricing power in the sector.

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Key Drivers of Growth

The company's earnings growth is expected to be driven by the improvement in industry operating rate to 80% mark, which is anticipated to start emerging from FY28e. This improvement in operating rate is expected to lead to increased pricing power in the sector, resulting in sharp earnings growth for Greenpanel Industries.

Recommendation

Given the company's strong performance and expected growth prospects, we maintain a BUY rating on the stock with an unrevised target price of Rs320. The target price is based on a valuation of 20x FY28e EPS, which reflects the company's growing earnings and improving market share.

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