Ambit's Nitin Bhasin Sees Nifty 50 Reaching 26,000-26,500 in 12-15 Months

Market Analyst Sees Nifty Gradually Moving Towards 26,000-26,500 Over 12-15 Months

Ambit's head of Institutional Equities, Nitin Bhasin, expects the Nifty to rise towards 26,000-26,500 over the next 12-15 months, implying broadly flat returns across the ongoing three-year rising concentration cycle. This prediction is consistent with historical patterns, where markets have typically seen a gradual increase in prices over a similar time frame.

Bhasin's analysis suggests that the current market correction has created an opportunity for domestic cyclicals to outperform defensives. Historically, when markets correct by around 10 percent below the 200DMA, cyclicals tend to outperform defensives over the subsequent six months. In line with this pattern, Bhasin recommends a tactical tilt towards domestic cyclicals over global cyclicals, as the latter remain more exposed to external macroeconomic shocks.

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Table: Historical Returns of Nifty and Cyclicals

The current geopolitical environment makes it challenging to identify precise market troughs. However, the Nifty's rebound from around 22,500 levels towards the end of March 2026 has aligned with Ambit's mean-reversion framework, which anchors on around a 10 percent deviation below the 200DMA. Bhasin views 22,800 as a strong support zone, and recommends using intermittent corrections as buying opportunities.

The recent extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran has been seen as incrementally positive, primarily because it reduces the risk of further supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, can ease the crude risk premium and provide some near-term macro stability. However, recent data reflects that oil tanker crossing through the strait remains significantly lower than pre-war levels, indicating that the underlying risks have not been eliminated.

In the current mean-reversion rally, cyclicals have outperformed defensives, in line with historical evidence. Bhasin recommends a tactical tilt towards domestic cyclicals over global cyclicals, as the latter remain more exposed to external macroeconomic shocks. However, as the rebound matures and focus shifts towards fundamentals, earnings growth normalization alongside elevated valuations is likely to drive outperformance of defensives.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Key Sectors for Investment

FMCG, pharma, IT, and telecom remain key overweight sectors in Ambit's model portfolio. These sectors are expected to outperform due to their superior downside protection and outperformance during periods of rising market concentration.

Energy Security and Renewable Energy

The West Asia conflict mandates "energy sovereignty" for India, which is around 60 percent dependent on LPG imports and 50 percent dependent on LNG imports. Aggressive D-PNG adoption, supported by ROW reforms and mandatory connections, will drive CGD volume growth. Expanding hydrocarbon storage to buffer supply shocks provides a tailwind for engineering firms building these projects.

Growth Forecasts and Earnings Estimates

Ambit has revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast downward from 7 percent to around 6.5 percent, due to the spillover effect of the LPG shortage on MSME operations. The consensus forecast of 15 percent EPS growth for FY27E is not broad-based and is a heavy bet on the BFSI sector, which is expected to contribute around 50 percent of all incremental Nifty earnings.