Adani Energy Solutions: Target Price Revised to Rs 1452 by Prabhudas Lilladher

Adani Energy Solutions Reports Steady Performance in Q4FY26

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Adani Energy Solutions highlights a steady performance in the previous quarter, with the company's Q4FY26 EBITDA (ex-SCA) growing approximately 13% year-over-year. This growth trajectory is expected to accelerate significantly over the next two fiscal years, with EBITDA estimated to rise by 42% and 24% year-over-year in FY27E and FY28E, respectively.

The growth is driven by substantial capitalization in the transmission, distribution, and smart metering segments, with an estimated INR 210 billion in FY27E and INR 130 billion in FY28E. The transmission business continues to provide strong visibility, with the order book increasing to INR 718 billion in FY26, compared to INR 599 billion in the previous year. Management also guides for a robust opportunity pipeline of INR 0.8–1.0 trillion over the next 12 months.

Comparison of Estimated EBITDA Growth

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The smart metering segment is expected to build a longer-term growth runway, supported by a significant untapped opportunity of approximately 90-100 million meters across states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh.

Despite the strong growth outlook, the recent stock price appreciation has left valuations at approximately 17.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA, implying a meaningful premium to peers trading at 8-12x. As a result, Prabhudas Lilladher has changed the stock recommendation to Hold (from Accumulate) with a revised SOTP-based target price of INR 1,452.